Trump Tariffs: India Inc faces the heat, TCS, Infy to Tata Motors and Sun Pharma in turmoil
The tariff increase is expected to disrupt India's export-oriented industries, potentially leading to job losses, profit margins and revenue declines
Top Indian companies are facing a major challenge following US President Donald Trump’s announcement to raise tariffs. This move is expected to affect directly or indirectly many Indian corporates, including IT giants TCS and Infosys, automobile firms like Tata Motors, pharmaceutical companies such as Sun Pharma and Cipla – which are now set to be brought under the reciprocal tariff policy — and National Aluminium and Tata Steel.
The stock market has already started feeling the heat, with stocks of pharma, automobile, IT, aluminium, and steel companies experiencing a significant decline over the last two days, taking the benchmark Sensex down.
The tariff increase is expected to disrupt India’s export-oriented industries, potentially leading to job losses, profit margins and revenue declines. As the situation unfolds, Indian corporates are gearing up to mitigate the effects of the tariff hike and explore alternative strategies to maintain their competitiveness in the global market. “Our analysis suggests that India’s direct export loss from higher tariffs could be limited to around $ 9-13 billion, which is 0.2%-0.3% of its GDP. India’s domestically driven economy may offer some resilience,” CareEdge Ratings said in a report.
The Trump blow has come at a time when the rise in input costs and moderation in urban consumption slowed down corporate performance in the quarter ended December 2024 and companies listed on the stock exchanges set to report a lacklustre performance in profits and sales during the quarter ended March 2025, reflecting the challenging business environment. There’s uncertainty over the corporate performance and GDP growth in the first quarter of FY2025-26 in the wake of the tariff changes.
Hit by the tariff hike, shares of TCS, India’s largest IT firm, fell another 2.46 per cent and Infosys plunged by 2.79 per cent on the stock exchanges on Friday amid worries that US firms will cut down IT spending. “Higher tariffs may result in higher inflation (versus the 2 per cent target of the US Fed) and may impact the FED’s rate cut decision which is not conducive for the IT sector, in general,” said Sumit Pokharna, VP-Fundamental Research, Kotak Securities.
Indian IT companies get almost 70 per cent of their export revenue from the US. Any imposition of retaliatory tariffs on US exports by the US’s trading partners could add to global inflation, which had turned benign.
Also read | How did the US calculate reciprocal tariffs? Not how Trump said it would
Tata Motors, a leading vehicle manufacturer, fell by 4.68 per cent on Friday after US has imposed 25 per cent tariffs on imported cars, light trucks and select auto parts sourced from outside of North America. Over 30 per cent of Tata Motors-owned JLR’s revenue is from the US.
Further, almost 150 auto parts will face tariffs at similar rate. This move could result into increase in car prices in the US and cost pressure for component suppliers. In the event of car prices going up, the US car market may witness a steep volume decline and that can impact revenue for component players supplying parts to the US car/light truck industry, according to Arun Agarwal, VP (Fundamental Research – Automobiles), Kotak Securities.
Bharat Forge which exports 20 per cent of its auto components to the US fell by 3.16 per cent on the stock exchanges.
However, auto makers like Maruti Suzuki and Mahindra & Mahindra have largely escaped as they are unlikely to get hit in a significant way.
Sun Pharma and other pharma majors in the country are also set to face Trump tariff policy as the US has planned include pharmaceuticals in the reciprocal tariffs in the next stage. Sun Pharma plunged by 4 per cent and Cipla by 5 per cent on the exchanges on Friday. India exported $ 8 billion of pharma products to USA in fiscal 2024, its largest export destination, and supplies 40 per cent of generics consumed in the USA and any hike in tariff by the US Administration is likely to impact pharma exports.
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India has more than 650 manufacturing facilities approved by the US Food and Drugs Administration (USFDA), the second-highest number outside the US. They account for a quarter of all such certified facilities outside the US, Crisil said.
Steel and aluminium companies are also bracing for tough times as they fear dumping from other Asian countries following the Trump tariff. National Aluminium and Tata Steel shares plummeted by 5-6 per cent as there could be pressure on their margins in the coming quarters, analysts said.
Though textile firms like Arvind and Raymond declined on the stock markets in line with the subdued trend, they are likely to be beneficiaries. This is because the US administration has levied 27 per cent reciprocal tariff on home textiles and readymade garments from India. This is lower than the levies on other major textile exporting countries — China (54 per cent), Vietnam (46 per cent), Bangladesh (37 per cent) and Pakistan (30 per cent) — and could enhance India’s relative competitiveness and present an opportunity to increase its share of textile exports to the US. For Arvind, the US is a key destination for its products.
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